Looking to get in the lab before making your picks? This is the lab. Stat Factory brings the numbers, the odds, and the market into one place so you can do the homework before placing your bets. This is the best sports betting research tool your money can buy.
What do we offer? We show you our prediction, give you the sportsbook line, show you where the public money is going, and put everything into one place so you can find where the best opportunities lie. Right now we offer NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and UFC, with Golf coming soon.
What makes us different: Our models make their predictions before looking at sportsbook odds. Then we bring in the available lines, market activity, player and matchup data, and more so you can find your best bets. Competitors can offer so many angles that the research becomes harder to use. We focus on the data that matters most and simplify everything into one game or prop card without endless scrolling. Everything that matters, all in one research desk.
Compare our forecast with the offered spread, then check where bets and money are going when splits are available.
RESEARCH ALL IN ONE PLACE
Maybe you want to know if a favorite is worth the spread, whether a receiver is likely to see enough work, or which hitter has the best home run setup.
Check our expected fair line against your sportsbook line. Find the best edge, use the bet splits to see where market money is going, and finalize your decision with team strength, recent form, and opponent strength indicators.
Open college footballA player's opportunities matter as much as his talent. Compare projected yards, catches and touchdowns with his chance of playing and expected workload, then check available sportsbook props.
Check recent contact quality, the opposing pitcher and whether the hitter is starting. Ballpark and weather details sit alongside the home run estimate and available odds.
WHOLE BOARD OR ONE MATCHUP
Use teams, dates and filters to narrow a busy board. Money bars show how reported betting dollars are split between the two sides.
Our model's win chance and expected margin do not change simply because a sportsbook moves its line.
PRO SPORTS ANALYST PICKS
Each research terminal has a page dedicated to our analyst picks each week. Every pick is timestamped and graded, so you do not just see the winners like you do with some competitors.
Take the home team
Take the home team
Take the road favorite
Take the home favorite
Take the home team with the points
Take the home team
NEW · UFC INTELLIGENCE
UFC is rarely just a pick between two names. Stat Factory puts the model's fair odds beside the fighter résumé, style matchup, finish paths and the actual market so you can research the fight instead of chasing a single number.
See market blind win probabilities and fair odds, then open the full fight dossier for recent form, layoff, style advantages, finish history and likely paths to victory.
Go beyond a win loss record with UFC history, physical profile, style DNA, striking and grappling rates, method résumé and fight by fight context.
Compare approved sportsbook moneylines, supported method and distance props, line movement and public betting when coverage is available. The market stays downstream from the model.
Review the S2 research anchor, validation evidence and model development context instead of treating a probability as a black box.
START WITH A QUESTION
Maybe you want to know if a favorite is worth laying the points, whether an NFL receiver is likely to see enough work, or if a home run price has moved. The tools below help answer those kinds of questions.
Check each team's estimated win chance, expected winning margin and combined points in the football and college basketball dashboards.
Compare the first line we recorded with later updates and the last recorded price before the game. Closing line value measures how an earlier number compares with that closing reference.
Ticket percentage counts the bets. Money percentage measures the dollars wagered. Compare both for available games, with the source shown. A larger money share is not proof of a smarter bet.
Compare the prices available from our tracked sportsbooks instead of assuming they all offer the same payout. Check the bookmaker and update time before placing a bet.
NFL projections separate participation from workload. NBA player dossiers organize rotation probability, conditional minutes and projected production. MLB shows lineup status, batting order and expected trips to the plate.
For baseball, check contact quality and the opposing pitcher. For basketball, compare team strength and pace. For UFC, compare recent form, layoff, style, finish history and the statistical paths each fighter has to win.
Where supported, compare the model's estimated chance of success with the sportsbook price. UFC puts model fair moneylines beside approved book prices, while the college football spread tool can recommend a pass when no tracked offer meets its value test.
Open saved forecasts and compare them with final results. Review accuracy, probability reliability and market comparisons for the recorded dates, rather than relying on a few winning picks.
A NOTE FROM THE FOUNDER
I built Stat Factory because I wanted something I could actually use myself. None of the fancy bells and whistles, none of the endless scattered data. Everything that actually matters, all in one place. I love sports and I love the numbers behind the wins. My MBA concentration in business analytics gave me a strong foundation for the research, and the models have grown through rigorous testing, mistakes, and most importantly, improvements. AI helps with parts of the website and development process, but I build the models and decide what they measure. Built by a bettor, to make you a better bettor.
A football game, a basketball matchup and a hitter's home run chance are different problems, so they should not be forced into the same model.
Across the platform, the models use methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, regression, gradient boosting and probability modeling. The detailed settings stay private, but the site shows enough about the process and the results for you to understand what each model is trying to do.
Every prediction is an estimate. No model can guarantee a win or a profit.
CHOOSE YOUR SPORT
College football and college basketball focus on games. NFL and NBA go deeper into player workload and props. MLB is built around home run research, NHL focuses on hockey win and scoring distributions, and UFC combines fair odds, fighter dossiers and fight market intelligence.
College Football
Compare our expected winner and margin with the spread offered by each sportsbook. Follow line changes, check betting activity and open a game breakdown before making your choice.
Features apply to published games. Odds and betting splits depend on provider coverage; missing data is not a recommendation.
College Basketball
Work through a busy basketball schedule using predicted scores, win chances and spreads. Narrow the board by confidence, rankings or venue, then open the reasons behind a pick.
Saved boards remain available outside the basketball season. New forecasts and market updates depend on the game schedule and data coverage.
National Football League
Research the game and the players in one dashboard. Compare projected scores, passing yards, rushing yards, catches and touchdowns with the available sportsbook lines.
Player props are bets on individual statistics. Projections, odds and splits are shown where the necessary data is available.
National Basketball Association
Research player opportunity in a CFB style board with searchable player dossiers, rotation probability, conditional minutes and projected points, rebounds and assists from V1.1.1.
The production player model separates active status from meaningful rotation participation. Player dossiers organize published model context and source integrity. Sportsbook lines remain downstream and do not alter the forecast.
Major League Baseball
Build a home run shortlist using hitter rankings, recent contact quality and pitcher matchups. Check the lineup, ballpark, weather and available odds before choosing a hitter.
Home run probabilities are provisional estimates, not fully calibrated fair prices. Statcast trends use recorded data, not a live broadcast of swings.
National Hockey League
Browse hockey forecasts built from a market blind scoring model: win probability, expected goals, model total, projected margin and regulation tie context in one immutable board.
NHL V3.1A7 is the current Research Champion, selected from the frozen 500 game A7 versus A11 versus A13 tournament. The frozen V1.2.0rc1 model remains the scientific control while sportsbook information stays downstream of the forecast.
Ultimate Fighting Championship
Turn the full UFC card into one research desk. Start with market blind win probabilities and model fair odds, open the fighter dossier for form, style, finish history and matchup paths, then compare approved sportsbook prices, props, movement and public betting without letting the market rewrite the forecast.
The current S2 CatBoost V3.0 model is a frozen research anchor used for live fair odds snapshots; it has not been promoted to production champion status. Sportsbook prices, props and betting splits appear only when approved source coverage is available.
HOW TO USE IT
Pick a game, team or player you know. Read the model, check the sportsbook price, look at the context and decide whether the bet still makes sense to you.
Start with a game, team or player you know. It is much easier to learn the dashboard when the matchup already means something to you.
Check the estimated win chance, expected margin or player projection. A likely winner is not automatically a good bet at any price.
Check the sportsbook, the line, the payout and when the number was last updated. Different books can offer different prices on the same bet.
Look at the details that matter for that sport, such as workload, lineup status, matchup, venue or weather. Missing information can be a good reason to pass.
Use saved forecasts and Performance Lab to compare the prediction with what actually happened. One result never tells the whole story.
MEMBERSHIPS
Choose one sport, combine a few, or use All Access. Dashboard availability is shown directly on each sport card.
College football and NFL research under one membership.
College basketball and NBA research under one membership.
College football and college basketball under one membership.
Access every Stat Factory sport and dashboard with one membership.
WHY MODEL AND MARKET STAY SEPARATE
If a model starts with the sportsbook line, it can end up echoing the market. We build the forecast first, then place the sportsbook price beside it so you can see the difference for yourself.
Ask us about a featureThe model's estimate of what may happen, such as a winning margin or a hitter's home run chance.
The available line and payout, with the bookmaker and recorded timing shown where supported.
Picks published by our analysts stay separate from the model forecast so you always know whose opinion you are reading.
Saved predictions and outcomes let you judge the work over many games instead of remembering only a few winners.
HELP US MAKE IT BETTER
