What you can do here: Compare our sports predictions with the odds offered by betting companies, also called sportsbooks. Check a college football spread, an NFL player's projected yards or a baseball hitter's home run chances. You can also follow changing odds and review past results before deciding whether to place a bet.
Our approach: The models make their predictions without using sportsbook odds. We then add the available prices and betting activity so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Recorded forecasts and results stay available for review, including the losses.
Compare our forecast with the offered spread, then check where bets and money are going when splits are available.
TAKE A LOOK INSIDE
These previews show the kinds of information you can explore. Open an image for a closer look at the cards, comparisons and player details.
Check our expected winning margin against the number your sportsbook offers. The spread tool estimates the chance of covering that exact line, accounts for the price and can recommend a pass. Betting splits show the available share of bets and money separately.
Open college footballA player's opportunities matter as much as his talent. Compare projected yards, catches and touchdowns with his chance of playing and expected workload, then check available sportsbook props.
Check recent contact quality, the opposing pitcher and whether the hitter is starting. Ballpark and weather details sit alongside the home run estimate and available odds.
FROM THE SCHEDULE TO ONE MATCHUP
Use teams, dates and available filters to narrow a busy board. Money bars show how reported betting dollars are split between the two sides.
Our model's win chance and expected margin do not change simply because a sportsbook moves its line.
REAL ANALYST PICKS
These are selections published by Stat Factory analysts before the event. Each one is timestamped, and once it is graded the win, loss or push stays visible so you are not only shown the winners.
Junior is hot and facing Jack Perkins, the guy on the Athletic's that should be in Double A ball. Fanduel has a 30% Dinger Tuesday boost, I'd use it here and take the massive edge.
Take the home favorite Chiefs
Take the Giants with the points
Live Bet
Live Bet
Vikinga
QUESTIONS THE DASHBOARDS HELP ANSWER
Find a better price, understand a player projection or see how a model performed. Each tool below answers a different part of the research.
Check each team's estimated win chance, expected winning margin and combined points in the football and college basketball dashboards.
Compare the first line we recorded with later updates and the last recorded price before the game. Closing line value measures how an earlier number compares with that closing reference.
Ticket percentage counts the bets. Money percentage measures the dollars wagered. Compare both for available games, with the source shown. A larger money share is not proof of a smarter bet.
Compare the prices available from our tracked sportsbooks instead of assuming they all offer the same payout. Check the bookmaker and update time before placing a bet.
NFL projections separate the chance of playing from expected workload. MLB shows lineup status, batting order and expected trips to the plate alongside home run estimates.
For baseball, check recent contact quality, the opposing pitcher, temperature and wind. For college basketball, compare team strength, pace and the game venue.
Where supported, compare the model's estimated chance of success with the sportsbook price. The college football spread tool can recommend a pass when none of the tracked offers meets its value test.
Open saved forecasts and compare them with final results. Review accuracy, probability reliability and market comparisons for the recorded dates, rather than relying on a few winning picks.
A NOTE FROM THE FOUNDER
I created Stat Factory by combining my love of sports with what I learned while earning my MBA with a concentration in business analytics. AI helped me design and polish the website, while I lead the model design, research and testing. I'm building a tool that helps you understand the numbers behind a bet, and I hope you'll join me as I keep making it better.
Predicting a football score is a different problem from estimating a hitter's chance of a home run.
Depending on the sport, our models use Monte Carlo simulations to explore possible outcomes, regression and gradient boosting to learn from past games, and probability modeling to estimate how likely an outcome is. We test forecasts against historical results and keep sportsbook odds separate, so you can compare our prediction with the market.
All predictions are estimates. No model can guarantee a win or a profit.
WHAT YOU GET IN EACH SPORT
College football and basketball focus on game outcomes. NFL adds player projections. MLB focuses on home run research. NBA is still in development.
College Football
Compare our expected winner and margin with the spread offered by each sportsbook. Follow line changes, check betting activity and open a game breakdown before making your choice.
Features apply to published games. Odds and betting splits depend on provider coverage; missing data is not a recommendation.
College Basketball
Work through a busy basketball schedule using predicted scores, win chances and spreads. Narrow the board by confidence, rankings or venue, then open the reasons behind a pick.
Saved boards remain available outside the basketball season. New forecasts and market updates depend on the game schedule and data coverage.
National Football League
Research the game and the players in one dashboard. Compare projected scores, passing yards, rushing yards, catches and touchdowns with the available sportsbook lines.
Player props are bets on individual statistics. Projections, odds and splits are shown where the necessary data is available.
National Basketball Association
NBA research is in development, with a focus on playing time, player statistics and the range of possible outcomes. It is not available as a live dashboard yet.
These are planned tools, not current membership benefits. Availability will be confirmed when the dashboard is released.
Major League Baseball
Build a home run shortlist using hitter rankings, recent contact quality and pitcher matchups. Check the lineup, ballpark, weather and available odds before choosing a hitter.
Home run probabilities are provisional estimates, not fully calibrated fair prices. Statcast trends use recorded data, not a live broadcast of swings.
YOUR FIRST VISIT
You do not need to understand the mathematics behind a model to use its output. Start with a game or player you follow and work through these checks.
Choose the sport and a published date. Start with a football matchup, a basketball game, an NFL player or an MLB hitter.
Check the estimated win chance, expected margin or player projection. A likely winner is not automatically a good bet at any price.
Look at the sportsbook name, line, payout and update time. Available odds can differ between bookmakers and can change after a dashboard refresh.
Review the relevant lineup, workload, matchup and data warnings. Missing information matters, and passing on a bet is always an option.
Use saved forecasts and Performance Lab to compare predictions with final outcomes. Judge a model across many games, not just the last winner.
MEMBERSHIPS
The Football Bundle includes college football and NFL. The College Bundle includes college football and basketball. Pricing shows what is available and which options are still planned.
College football and NFL research under one membership.
College basketball and NBA research under one membership.
College football and college basketball under one membership.
Access every Stat Factory sport and dashboard with one membership.
WHAT THE NUMBERS MEAN
Our models use sports data rather than betting odds to make their forecasts. The dashboard then adds available sportsbook prices for comparison. A disagreement is a reason to investigate, not a promise of profit.
Ask us about a featureThe model's estimate of what may happen, such as a winning margin or a hitter's home run chance.
The available line and payout, with the bookmaker and recorded timing shown where supported.
Selections published by our analysts, kept separate from the model forecast so you know whose view you are reading.
Saved predictions and outcomes that help you assess accuracy, uncertainty and the quality of past comparisons.
HELP SHAPE STAT FACTORY
