What Stat Factory does: We show you our prediction, give you the sportsbook line, show you where the money is going, and put everything into one place so you can find where the best opportunities may be. College Football, College Basketball, NFL and MLB are available now, with NBA and NHL on the way. All your research in one place.
What makes us different: Our models make their predictions before looking at sportsbook odds. Then we bring in the available lines, betting activity, player and matchup data, and other information that matters so you can compare what our models think with what the market is offering.
Compare our forecast with the offered spread, then check where bets and money are going when splits are available.
SEE HOW PEOPLE USE IT
Maybe you want to know if a favorite is worth the spread, whether a receiver is likely to see enough work, or which hitter has the best home run setup. These examples show where to look.
Check our expected winning margin against the number your sportsbook offers. The spread tool estimates the chance of covering that exact line, accounts for the price and can recommend a pass. Betting splits show the available share of bets and money separately.
Open college footballA player's opportunities matter as much as his talent. Compare projected yards, catches and touchdowns with his chance of playing and expected workload, then check available sportsbook props.
Check recent contact quality, the opposing pitcher and whether the hitter is starting. Ballpark and weather details sit alongside the home run estimate and available odds.
WHOLE BOARD OR ONE MATCHUP
Use teams, dates and filters to narrow a busy board. Money bars show how reported betting dollars are split between the two sides.
Our model's win chance and expected margin do not change simply because a sportsbook moves its line.
REAL ANALYST PICKS
These are selections published by Stat Factory analysts before the event. Each one is timestamped, and once it is graded the win, loss or push stays visible so you are not only shown the winners.
Junior is hot and facing Jack Perkins, the guy on the Athletic's that should be in Double A ball. Fanduel has a 30% Dinger Tuesday boost, I'd use it here and take the massive edge.
Take the home favorite Chiefs
Take the Giants with the points
Live Bet
Live Bet
Vikinga
START WITH A QUESTION
Maybe you want to know if a favorite is worth laying the points, whether an NFL receiver is likely to see enough work, or if a home run price has moved. The tools below help answer those kinds of questions.
Check each team's estimated win chance, expected winning margin and combined points in the football and college basketball dashboards.
Compare the first line we recorded with later updates and the last recorded price before the game. Closing line value measures how an earlier number compares with that closing reference.
Ticket percentage counts the bets. Money percentage measures the dollars wagered. Compare both for available games, with the source shown. A larger money share is not proof of a smarter bet.
Compare the prices available from our tracked sportsbooks instead of assuming they all offer the same payout. Check the bookmaker and update time before placing a bet.
NFL projections separate the chance of playing from expected workload. MLB shows lineup status, batting order and expected trips to the plate alongside home run estimates.
For baseball, check recent contact quality, the opposing pitcher, temperature and wind. For college basketball, compare team strength, pace and the game venue.
Where supported, compare the model's estimated chance of success with the sportsbook price. The college football spread tool can recommend a pass when none of the tracked offers meets its value test.
Open saved forecasts and compare them with final results. Review accuracy, probability reliability and market comparisons for the recorded dates, rather than relying on a few winning picks.
A NOTE FROM THE FOUNDER
I built Stat Factory because I love sports and I enjoy figuring out what the numbers are really saying. My MBA concentration in business analytics gave me a strong foundation for the research, and the models have grown through repeated testing, mistakes, improvements and plenty of questions. AI helps with parts of the website and development process, but I decide how the models are built, what they measure and how they are evaluated.
A football game, a basketball matchup and a hitter's home run chance are different problems, so they should not be forced into the same model.
Across the platform, the models use methods such as Monte Carlo simulation, regression, gradient boosting and probability modeling. The detailed settings stay private, but the site shows enough about the process and the results for you to understand what each model is trying to do.
Every prediction is an estimate. No model can guarantee a win or a profit.
CHOOSE YOUR SPORT
College football and college basketball focus on games. NFL goes deeper into player props. MLB is built around home run research. NBA is still being finished.
College Football
Compare our expected winner and margin with the spread offered by each sportsbook. Follow line changes, check betting activity and open a game breakdown before making your choice.
Features apply to published games. Odds and betting splits depend on provider coverage; missing data is not a recommendation.
College Basketball
Work through a busy basketball schedule using predicted scores, win chances and spreads. Narrow the board by confidence, rankings or venue, then open the reasons behind a pick.
Saved boards remain available outside the basketball season. New forecasts and market updates depend on the game schedule and data coverage.
National Football League
Research the game and the players in one dashboard. Compare projected scores, passing yards, rushing yards, catches and touchdowns with the available sportsbook lines.
Player props are bets on individual statistics. Projections, odds and splits are shown where the necessary data is available.
National Basketball Association
NBA research is in development, with a focus on playing time, player statistics and the range of possible outcomes. It is not available as a live dashboard yet.
These are planned tools, not current membership benefits. Availability will be confirmed when the dashboard is released.
Major League Baseball
Build a home run shortlist using hitter rankings, recent contact quality and pitcher matchups. Check the lineup, ballpark, weather and available odds before choosing a hitter.
Home run probabilities are provisional estimates, not fully calibrated fair prices. Statcast trends use recorded data, not a live broadcast of swings.
HOW TO USE IT
Pick a game, team or player you know. Read the model, check the sportsbook price, look at the context and decide whether the bet still makes sense to you.
Start with a game, team or player you know. It is much easier to learn the dashboard when the matchup already means something to you.
Check the estimated win chance, expected margin or player projection. A likely winner is not automatically a good bet at any price.
Check the sportsbook, the line, the payout and when the number was last updated. Different books can offer different prices on the same bet.
Look at the details that matter for that sport, such as workload, lineup status, matchup, venue or weather. Missing information can be a good reason to pass.
Use saved forecasts and Performance Lab to compare the prediction with what actually happened. One result never tells the whole story.
MEMBERSHIPS
Choose one sport, combine a few, or use All Access. NBA is still in development, so its availability is clearly marked.
College football and NFL research under one membership.
College basketball and NBA research under one membership.
College football and college basketball under one membership.
Access every Stat Factory sport and dashboard with one membership.
WHY MODEL AND MARKET STAY SEPARATE
If a model starts with the sportsbook line, it can end up echoing the market. We build the forecast first, then place the sportsbook price beside it so you can see the difference for yourself.
Ask us about a featureThe model's estimate of what may happen, such as a winning margin or a hitter's home run chance.
The available line and payout, with the bookmaker and recorded timing shown where supported.
Picks published by our analysts stay separate from the model forecast so you always know whose opinion you are reading.
Saved predictions and outcomes let you judge the work over many games instead of remembering only a few winners.
HELP US MAKE IT BETTER
